Across programs and over time · Wage year 2026-27
Wage level and the H-1B lottery, including what changed and what didn’t
This is the question where a confident answer is most likely to be wrong. Here’s what’s settled, and here’s exactly what we couldn’t verify.
What this guide won’t tell youWe won’t state how the current cap season selection works. Selection rules have been the subject of rulemaking more than once, a reported recent change surfaced during the research for this site and couldn’t be confirmed against a primary source, and a wrong answer here costs a filing season. Check the Federal Register and the USCIS cap season page before acting on anything you read anywhere about weighted selection, including here.
What’s settled
- H-1B is numerically limited by statute: 65,000 in the regular allocation, with a further 20,000 for beneficiaries holding a US master's degree or higher.
- Certain employers are exempt from the cap, including institutions of higher education, related or affiliated nonprofit entities, and nonprofit or governmental research organizations. A cap-exempt filing doesn’t enter a selection at all.
- USCIS operates an electronic registration process ahead of cap filings, and when registrations exceed the available numbers a selection is run to decide which registrations may file.
- The prevailing wage obligation is completely independent of selection. Whatever process picks registrations, the employer owes the required wage for the job it described, at the level that job supports.
What has been in flux
The proposition that selection should favor higher wage levels rather than run at random has been raised in rulemaking more than once. At least one rule tying selection to wage level was finalised and then withdrawn before it ever governed a selection. Proposals in the same direction have followed. That history is the reason nobody should carry a mental model of "the lottery" forward from one year to the next without checking it.
An unverified reportResearch for this site surfaced a report of a change to weighted selection taking effect in 2026. We couldn’t confirm it against the Federal Register or an agency source, so this site takes no position on whether it exists, what it says, or when it applies. Treat that gap as a gap, not as evidence either way.
What’s true regardless
Two things hold whatever the selection process turns out to be in a given year, and they’re the two worth acting on.
First, the level has to follow the job. A determination is built from the requirements in the job description, using the steps in How the four wage levels are determined. Writing requirements upward to chase a selection advantage inflates the wage owed, narrows who counts as qualified, and creates a document the employer will be read against later. It’s the clearest example of the failure pattern in Common wage level mistakes on filings.
Second, the wage owed is real money from day one. If a filing is placed at a level the employer can’t actually pay, the exposure described in What happens when the offered wage is below the prevailing wage arrives whether or not the registration was ever selected.
What the filing record shows
For context rather than for planning: across the 60 occupations covered here, the 85,935 certified filings in FY2025 Q1 to Q4 that recorded a level distributed as follows.
| Level | Certified filings | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Level I | 11,925 | 13.9% |
| Level II | 36,397 | 42.4% |
| Level III | 20,437 | 23.8% |
| Level IV | 17,176 | 20.0% |
Computed from the OFLC LCA disclosure data, FY2025 Q1 to Q4, certified H-1B filings only.
Level II is the plurality. That’s a description of past filing behavior across all H-1B filings in the period, cap-subject and cap-exempt alike. It’s not a prediction, it’s not a target, and it’s not evidence about any selection process.
To see the four figures a level choice is actually choosing between, for a real occupation and a real area, use the Prevailing wage calculator or read Wage levels I to IV, compared. For Software Developers in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ in wage year 2026-27, the gap between Level I and Level IV is $83,616 a year.
Computed from ALC_Export.csv in OFLC_Wages_2026-27.zip, wage year 2026-27.
More in across programs and over time
- Multiple worksite locations on one filing. Per-site obligations, posting at each place, and the short-term placement allowance.
- H-1B versus H-1B1 versus E-3, and how the wage rules differ. One wage rule, three classifications, and a table of what actually differs.
- PERM prevailing wage, and how it differs from H-1B. The mandatory determination, the 100 per cent rule, and the timing difference that surprises people.
- Amended petitions and material change. What counts as material, the geographic rule, and what happens to the wage when the job moves.
All 24 guides are indexed at Guides. Wage figures throughout are read from ALC_Export.csv, wage year 2026-27.